Gaby Hinsliff, political editor
Sunday February 19, 2006
 

Britain is suffering a baby 'shortage' with potentially disastrous consequences as work pressures force young women to shelve plans for a family, according to dramatic new research urging an £11bn campaign to boost parenthood.

Women have not turned against becoming mothers and, if they could have the number of children they actually wanted, more than 90,000 extra babies a year would be born, according to calculations by the respected think-tank, the Institute for Public Policy Research.

But the report says the professional and financial penalties of childbearing - a mid-skilled 24-year-old who gives birth will earn £564,000 less over her lifetime than a childless counterpart, as motherhood narrows her career options - mean many are delaying pregnancy until it may be too late to conceive.

The 'baby gap' emerging between maternal desire and reality now threatens a demographic crisis as too few children are born to support future elderly dependants, the study warns. By 2074, the year when many born now will be retiring, the pressure on public spending from an ageing population could require an 8p rise in income tax if births are at the lowest end of official forecasts.

With childlessness now forecast on a scale not seen since the mass male fatalities of the First World War destroyed many women's hopes of motherhood, the IPPR urges government intervention to raise the birth rate by making working parenthood more appealing to both mothers and fathers.

It advocates free nursery places for two-year-olds, paternity leave paid at 90 per cent of a man's salary, and three months of paid parental leave to be taken at any point before the child is five, with one month reserved for fathers. That would cost up to £11bn a year by 2020 - about £183 for every British man, woman and child.

'This is not a report that says to women "stay at home and have children",' said Nick Pearce, director of the IPPR. 'Our society depends on women working, being able to fulfil their aspirations and have greater equality at work - and we need better to support that.'

Alan Johnson, the Trade and Industry Secretary, yesterday welcomed a 'worthwhile contribution' to the debate within government over families. Gordon Brown is studying the findings of a government commission on working women, to be published shortly, and has been struck by evidence of mothers being trapped in dead-end, low-paid, part-time work.

Jenny Watson, head of the Equal Opportunities Commission, said the 'baby gap' partly reflected women changing their minds or not meeting the right man. But she added: 'It should tell us that we don't have a very family-friendly culture, and it should concern us.'

Britain has 'too many women remaining involuntarily childless', the report concludes, while high fertility and early childbirth is 'systematically associated with severely reduced prospects'.

If women had had, by the age of 36-38, the number of children they wanted when they were aged between 21 and 23, the birth rate would be 13 per cent higher, it calculates. Only five per cent said they did not originally want children, yet four times as many were childless by their late thirties.

Mike Dixon, co-author with Julia Margo of the report, said there were 'very similar' patterns for male hopes of fatherhood, although data is less clear.

Births have risen slightly over the past four years. But Pearce said the crucial issue was 'not the size of the population but its composition', with a balance between the elderly, who consume most public spending, and young workers who consume least.