Shrinking population threatens German economy
By James Drake in Prague and Julius Strauss in Budapest

GERMANY may have to import millions of migrant workers to maintain its position as the biggest economic power in Europe, under threat from a falling population.

 The government statistics office predicted there would be 20 per cent fewer Germans in 50 years, a drop of 17 million, even if net immigration ran at 100,000 people a year. The country's current population is 82 million.

 Last year, there was a net inflow of 202,000 people to Germany. But even if the trend continues at that rate for the next half century, it will still lose 15 per cent of its population. The report also warned that increasing life expectancy will put further pressure on Germany's costly pensions system.

 Populations in the former communist bloc, the obvious alternative source of labour for Germany, have been forecast to drop by up to a third in the next five decades. The East European birth rate was last measured in 1997, when it was down to 1.37 children per woman, a third lower than in 1988. The European Union average is 1.45.

 The worst decline came in the former East Germany where the birth rate fell to 0.75. During the Communist years a lack of economic opportunity combined with a comprehensive social net and free healthcare encouraged motherhood. One way to jump to the front of the state housing queue was to have children.

 After the fall of communism in 1989, many families became poorer, particularly teachers, doctors, nurses and other state employees, and jobs were less reliable. It meant that many couples decided they could afford only one child.

 Living standards in many former Eastern bloc countries are now on the rise but analysts say the birth rate may be hit by a new-found freedom for women. At 32, Anna Macejova is one of a new breed of professional Eastern European women who have put off having children. The air-traffic controller in Slovakia said: "My mother had three children, my granny had five. For them marriage and motherhood was an end in itself." 

Anita Bakos, a 28-year-old lawyer in Budapest, believes her career will suffer if she has children. "As a lawyer you can't just take a few years out to raise kids," she said. "You lose your clients and more than likely you'll never get your job back. One of the first things an interviewer asked me recently was when I was planning on having a family."

 She said: "Women are now equal to men under the law and many have good jobs. But too many Hungarian men still think having a family means they sit in the pub with their friends while the woman cleans, irons and looks after the baby."